Press Release
Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 2 July 2026
Warsh Offers Few Policy Clues
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh concluded his Sintra appearance without providing fresh policy guidance. While noting that inflationary pressures have eased, he reiterated that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to price stability.
Warsh maintained a data-dependent stance and emphasised the Fed’s independence, leaving markets with limited direction ahead of today’s key economic release.
NFP Preview: ADP Miss Raises Caution
Attention now shifts to tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The latest ADP figures showed private payroll growth of 98,000, below expectations and the previous reading, raising concerns over labour market strength.
June NFP is expected to increase by 110,000, down from 172,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.
A weaker reading could undermine the US dollar and lead investors to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. A stronger result would likely reinforce the dollar’s bullish trend.
US Dollar Analysis
The US dollar remains in a consolidation phase, with support between 100.80 and 101.00.
Holding above this zone would support further gains, while a break below could trigger a short-term correction. The NFP report is expected to determine the dollar’s next major move.
GBP/USD: Bullish Reversal Signals Opportunity
GBP/USD has regained momentum after recovering above 1.3200. A bullish EMA crossover on the four-hour chart suggests improving sentiment.
If the pair remains above 1.3200 following the NFP release, resistance is seen at 1.3310 and 1.3380.
Gold: Defending the $4,000 Level
Gold continues to build support around $4,000. Sustained trading above the $4,000–$4,050 range would signal improving momentum, while a move above $4,100 could confirm a broader bullish reversal.
Bitcoin: Testing the $60,000 Pivot
Bitcoin is once again testing the key $60,000 support level. Holding above this area could keep prices range-bound, while a break lower may signal renewed selling pressure.
Market Summary
Markets remain cautious ahead of tonight’s NFP report. Following Warsh’s measured remarks and softer ADP data, investors are preparing for potential volatility.
What to Watch Today
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NFP Release: Watch for deviations from the 110,000 forecast.
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US Dollar Reaction: Weak data may pressure the dollar; stronger figures could support gains.
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Gold Support: Holding above $4,000 remains crucial for a potential recovery.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
