Press Release
Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 25 June 2026
Macro Drivers: PCE Inflation Preview
Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases continue to build, driving the US Dollar Index to a 15-month high and placing pressure on equities and non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Market focus is now firmly on tonight’s US PCE inflation release.
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this report will shape expectations for a potential September rate hike. Consensus forecasts a 4.1% annual increase, up from 3.8%, marking a third consecutive month above 3% and the highest reading since May 2023.
US Dollar Outlook (USDX)
The US Dollar Index remains in a strong upward trend, holding above 101. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely reinforce tightening expectations and lift the dollar further, while a softer print may trigger a short-term pullback.
Technically, levels above 100 continue to support a “buy on dips” approach. However, 101.60—last seen in May 2025—remains key resistance.
Unless inflation data disappoints significantly, dollar strength is expected to persist, with any declines likely corrective.
Gold: Testing Key Support
Gold remains highly sensitive to the dollar and rate expectations. With ongoing dollar strength, the metal is hovering near the $4,000 per ounce level.
A break below this threshold could extend losses towards $3,920. Unless gold reclaims the $4,050–$4,100 range, the broader bias remains bearish.
The outlook will largely depend on inflation data and the dollar’s direction.
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY continues to rise, supported by a strong dollar and widening yield differentials. The pair has moved above 160, with resistance at 161.80 remaining significant.
Despite a relatively firm stance from the Bank of Japan, the yen remains under pressure against the dollar, though it shows resilience versus other currencies.
A softer inflation reading may cap gains, while a stronger print could push the pair higher.
Market Summary
Markets remain cautious ahead of the PCE release, with the dollar firm and gold under pressure as traders await clearer direction on Federal Reserve policy.
What to Watch Today
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US Core PCE Inflation: A reading above 4.1% may strengthen the dollar; a weaker figure could trigger broad corrections.
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USDX Resistance (101.60): A key level to confirm continued bullish momentum.
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Gold at $4,000: A break below may accelerate declines towards $3,920.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
