Press Release
Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 24 June 2026
Macro Drivers: Fed Concerns and Declining Risk Premiums
Global equity markets declined as expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases intensified. The Nasdaq led losses, falling 2.2%, as investors adjusted to tighter monetary conditions. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 50.6% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September, along with a 19.6% chance of a larger move.
This increasingly hawkish outlook continues to weigh on equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology.
At the same time, the energy market is undergoing a rapid adjustment. Progress in Middle East peace negotiations has eased geopolitical tensions, removing much of the risk premium that had supported oil prices. Consequently, both Brent and WTI crude have fallen sharply towards pre-conflict levels.
These twin themes—monetary tightening and easing geopolitical risks—are expected to shape sentiment ahead of the US PCE inflation report.
US Indices – S&P 500 Outlook
The Nasdaq 100 remains in consolidation as higher rate expectations pressure technology stocks.
The S&P 500 has also lost momentum, slipping below the key 7,500 level after failing to set a higher high. This suggests a potential corrective phase. A break below 7,350 could trigger a sharper short-term decline.
Rising yields further limit the scope for equity valuations to expand, reinforcing the cautious outlook.
US Dollar Strengthens
The US dollar continues to advance, with the Dollar Index holding above 101 and reaching a 15-month high. The broader trend remains bullish, with markets favouring buying on dips.
This strength is placing consistent downward pressure on major pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The upcoming PCE inflation release will be key in determining whether the dollar can extend its gains.
Crude Oil: Persistent Downward Pressure
Brent crude is testing support between $77 and $80 per barrel. A sustained break below $80 could trigger further declines.
WTI crude remains within the $75–$77 range, with a break below this zone likely to confirm continued downside momentum.
With the geopolitical risk premium largely removed, any short-term rebounds are expected to be limited, making rallies potential selling opportunities.
Market Summary
Markets remain under pressure from tightening monetary expectations and easing geopolitical risks, with equities weakening, the US dollar firm, and oil prices continuing to fall ahead of key inflation data.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
