Press Release
28 May 2026
PCE Preview: Inflation Likely to Stay High
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index today, drawing strong market attention as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Following firm CPI readings, expectations point to elevated inflation, primarily driven by high global crude oil prices.
Fed Outlook: “Higher for Longer” View Strengthens
If PCE data confirms inflation remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target, it will support the central bank’s “higher for longer” stance, delaying rate cuts. Recent comments from officials reflect a hawkish tone: Jefferson highlighted that controlling second-round inflation remains key, whilst Kashkari stated inflation is too high. Stronger data could prompt markets to price in further rate hikes.
US Dollar Outlook: Watching a Break Above 99.35
Persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed outlook continue to support the greenback. Holding above the 99.00 support level, the Dollar Index remains positioned for near-term gains. A hot PCE reading could push the Dollar Index (USDX) above 99.35 resistance, potentially driving a broader rally towards 99.80 or even the 100.00 milestone as yield expectations adjust.
Gold Outlook: Pressure Building Towards 4,400
Gold (XAUUSD) faces downside pressure from rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar. Higher borrowing costs could weaken Gold’s support levels, where a drop below 4,400 risks deeper declines. The 4,360–4,400 range remains crucial support, whilst 4,460–4,500 acts as key resistance; the short-term outlook stays negative unless prices reclaim this zone.
FX Focus: USD/CHF Supported by Yield Gap
A stronger US Dollar and higher Treasury yields continue to weigh on the Swiss Franc. The widening yield gap between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which maintains its policy rate at 0.00%, remains a key factor. USD/CHF is trading within a range of 0.7700–0.7900, with the 0.7850 level remaining an important pivot.
Market Outlook Summary
Today’s trading session will depend heavily on the US PCE inflation data. Expected hot data, supported by high crude oil prices, backs the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance, strengthening the US Dollar. The Dollar Index is currently approaching 99.35 resistance, whilst rising yields pressure Gold towards 4,400. Concurrently, the widening yield gap with the SNB weighs on the Swiss Franc, keeping USD/CHF focused around 0.7850.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
